Norfolk, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

137
FXUS61 KAKQ 110656
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
256 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to slide further south today allowing
for a more humid airmass to move in place. Daily chances of
showers and storms are expected primarily across the southern
half of the area today. High pressure will migrate further south
through the week allowing for temperatures to warm and allow
for the daily chances of showers to return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 A  EDT Monday...

Key Messages:


- Patchy fog is possible this morning across the Piedmont and MD
Eastern Shore


- Chances of an isolated shower and thunderstorm increases across
the South.

The upper level ridge continues to hold in place across the eastern
half of the United States this morning. While to the west a weak
trough continues to move across the central Great Plains. At the
surface, high pressure continues to remain off shore of Delmarva.
While to the south a stationary front is currently located just
south of the CWA. Sky`s remain mostly cloudy to cloudy across VA/NC
as clouds continue to increase a head of the approaching frontal
boundary. While across MD and the Eastern Shore Sky`s remain mostly
clear. These clouds are leading to a temperature`s staying a little
warmer across the south than across the north. Temperatures as of
2am are in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the south and coastline
and lower to middle 60s across the north. Through the rest of the
patchy fog is expected to develop across the Piedmont and MD Eastern
Shore due to the increase in moisture. However, with the increase of
clouds across the Piedmont it maybe difficult for patchy fog to
develop. The highest confidence in patchy fog is across the MD
Eastern Shore as sky cover remains mostly clear. In addition to the
patchy fog temperatures later this morning will be stretching from
the lower to upper 60s. Possibly lower 70s further south where the
cloud cover continues to linger.

Through the day high pressure will continue to move south further
off the coast of VA/NC. This will allow for warmer and more humid
air mass to move back in place across the area. PW values are
progged to be between 1.6 to 1.9" along and north of I-64 and
between 2-2.2" south of  I-64. Cape is also expected to build
through the day but only ~1000 ML cape is expected due to the lack
of daytime heating thanks to the abundance of cloud cover. These ATM
ingredients will allow for showers and or storms to potentially pose
the risk of strong wet downbursts. However, given the lack of shear
in place no organized severe weather is expected. In addition to the
wet downbursts, localized heavy rain fall is expected primarily
across the SE. Any storm could potentially pose the risk of heavy
rain that could lead to localized flooding especially in urban and
poor drainage areas. Temperatures today will be in the lower 80s
across the south and coastline due to the continuance of cloud cover
and middle 80s to the north where more sunshine is expected. For
tonight showers and storms are expected to clear due to the loss of
day time heating and lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
across the CWA.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity gradually increase both Tuesday and
Wednesday.

- Daily chances of showers and storms continue with the better
chance Wednesday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.


The upper level ridge will slide further east early Tuesday and the
trough across the central United States will begin to slowly nudge
towards the area. While at the surface high pressure will be off the
SE coast. Temperatures will continue to warm with highs in the upper
to middle 80s across the CWA. Additionally dew points will also rise
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will allow for Heat Indices to
be in the lower to middle 90s. Daily chances of storms continue in
the afternoon of Tuesday as a lee trough begins to form just west of
the CWA. No severe storms are expected due to the continue weak flow
aloft. However, a localized heavy downpour is possible due to weak
modest instability and high PW. By Wednesday, primarily zonal flow
will be across the area with a weak shortwave moving across. A
cold/stationary front at the surface will slowly approach the area.
Ahead of the frontal boundary a warm and humid airmass will be in
place with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the
humid airmass in place Heat Indices will be approaching near 100.
Additionally, with adequate daytime heating modest cape is expected
to build. Additionally, there will be some weak shear in place ~25kt
which is enough to support more organized convection. Confidence is
low at the time but with the weak shear and modest instability in
place there is the possibility that some of these showers and storms
Wednesday could pose the risk of gusty to strong winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Near seasonable temperatures are expected in the extended
forecast.

- Chances for daily late afternoon and evening showers and  storms
return through the forecast period. However, the  potential for
widespread severe weather remains low.

The 00z ensemble guidance continues to remain in decent agreement
with the over all synoptic pattern in the extended. An upper level
trough will eject just north of the area Thursday and a new but weak
ridge will build back into place. High pressure at the surface will
centered over the area. This high pressure will allow for
temperatures by the middle to late next week be near seasonable.
Highs Thurs through Sat will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Daily
chances for showers and storms continue through the extended. Severe
weather isn`t a significant concern through this period, with shear
remaining weak/not supportive of organized convection.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Monday...

Cloud cover continues to increase across VA and NC this morning.
These low level clouds are bringing MVFR and IFR conditions
across the SE terminals and RIC. These conditions are expected
to last through the taf period and possibly beyond. Across ECG
some low level clouds have been noted and a tempo group has been
added or IFR cigs between 6 and 8z. Some of the latest model
guidance does and IFR cigs continuing on from 8 to 12z. In
addition to the low level clouds there is the potential for
patchy fog across all terminals this morning. Will note that
with the abundance of cloud cover across the SE it maybe
difficult for fog to form. The best potential for fog will be
across SBY where there is the potential for IFR conditions. The
patchy fog is supposed to develop ~7z and last through ~12z. A
tempo group has been added between 8 and 12z for IFR conditions.

Over the course of the day MVFR conditions are expected to last
as low level clouds continue to move in ahead of a stationary
boundary to the south. Only SBY should remain VFR through the
day as the boundary and clouds stay to the south. A chance of
showers and storms are expected across the south however,
confidence is low across RIC, PHF, and ORF to put in any
PROB30`s. The only terminal with the highest confidence in a
shower is SBY and a PROB30 has been added to the TAF.

Outlook: Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms continue through the week. Confidence is highest Mon with
generally low-moderate confidence for the rest of the week.
Additionally, given increasing heat and humidity, MVFR CIGs will
continue to be possible through the week with potentially IFR
CIGs and/or VIS (due to fog) possible at night in some
locations.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues across all beaches
today, with a Moderate Risk across the southern beaches on Tuesday.

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the week.

High pressure continues to slowly shift off the New England/Mid
Atlantic coast early this morning. Winds are E-SE at 5-10 kt with 2-
3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. The area of high pressure is progged to
gradually build SE over the next few days, allowing for generally
benign marine conditions. Winds remain E-SE today and increase to 10-
15 kt this afternoon/evening before becoming S tonight and
diminishing back to 5-10 kt. Winds remain SW to SE through early Thu
with a return to light (5-10 kt) onshore flow by Fri. Waves and seas
remain generally 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively through the week.

Have expanded the Moderate rip current risk to include all beaches
today. With the E-SE flow (which is shore normal for the northern
beaches) and 8-9 second periods, feel that the moderate is warranted
for the northern beaches as well. The Moderate rip current risk
persists across the S beaches on Tuesday due to lingering shore-
normal swell and 2-3 ft seas. Will note that the periods increase to
9-10 seconds on Tue across all beaches. As such, the Moderate rip
current risk may need to be expanded to include the N beaches. The
rip risk drops to low at all area beaches on Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...ERI/RMM